In graduate school I knew a lot of miserable people. The academic grind
had beaten them down, robbed them of the passion they once felt for
their areas of expertise. Not me! I had pushed my chips into the center,
giving myself over to my work (math modeling of animal learning and
behavior–the specifics are irrelevant to my current topic). I spent long
hours in the lab writing and crunching numbers, and then went home to
read journal articles. Everything was swell. Then, suddenly, without any
particular precipitating event, I began to feel the way many of my
colleagues did—tired and depressed, dreading each day.
As I joined the ranks of the miserable, I grappled with the fact that I
had moved clear across the country and spent 4 years of my life, hours
upon hours, pursuing this topic. I was good at it. How could I now hate
it? Clearly, I had too much personally invested to just quit! Surely
things would get better when I finished the PhD, or got that first Post
Doc position, or the first real academic job, or finally earned tenure
some 6 years after that. This pattern of thinking is extremely dangerous
and irrational, yet all too common in life and in business. And it took
me months to get a grip on it before I packed up and left.
Behavioral economists call this tendency the Sunk Cost or “Concorde”
Fallacy (Concorde after the exorbitantly expensive sonic Jet project
undertaken by the French and English governments). When making a
decision we ought to be concerned with how best to allocate our current
and future resources—be they money, time, or effort. However, as is
often the case in Economics, oughts and is’s are not the same. Instead
of behaving optimally, we tend to focus on decisions we’ve already made,
money already spent, time already elapsed. And we make poor decisions.
This concept itself is far from a new one, but I hope my story will
resonate for some of you. When you know in your gut that your current
course is doomed, gather the courage to combat this fallacy. In my case
it was about changing careers, there are options aplenty for anyone who
can identify their passion. But I think there is also a broader message
for entrepreneurs and businesses. If your website doesn’t convert even
though you paid some hotshot a lot of money to make it look snazzy, it’s
time to fix it. If you are marketing a product that doesn’t make sense
for consumers, move on. If your business model is broken, you know deep
down that the little tweaks are not the answer. Re-think it or start
anew.
What are you invested in that you ought to abandon?
